ChinaIOL- How can the air source heat pump industry go in the future?

http://www.chinaiol.com   2017/10/19 14:42:58   Source:产业在线ChinaIOL  

On 19th September, 7 industrial masters initiate a discussion around 9 the hottest topics at heating branch of 2017 China HVAC Industry Annual Conference. There are nearly 100 people attend this interaction.

Guests:

Hengyi, Zhao (prolocutor)                 Deputy Secretary General of Heat Pump Committee

                                                                of CECA

Wenchao, Li                                        Deputy Director General of Beijing Rural Construction

Hongqi, Li                                             Associate of Beijing University of Technology

Xuelin, Zhang                                      Sales Director of Heat Pump Group of Central Air Conditioner Department of Midea Group

Yong, Huang,                                       Senior manager of Danfoss

Xuechu, Tang                                      Vice-general Manager of Guang Dong Tong Yi Air Source Technology Co.,ltd

Guangwen, Yin                                    Vice-president of Emerson 

What 9 questions are? Let us seek for answer now! 

CHANCE

1. Shandong is the most prospective province in "coal to electricity"

       Which province is the most prospective in the application of "coal to electricity" air source heat pump? In Shanxi, Shandong, Henan, Hebei and Inner Mongolia, 44.7% people vote Shandong province  

Yong, Huang believes that Shandong province is the most prospect in residential “coal to electricity", but Shanxi, Shandong, Henan and Hebei provinces have potential in commercial “coal to electricity". By analyzing capital strength, government attention and heating region, Xuelin, Zhang thinks capacity of the market at Shandong will be beyond other provinces. “Cold areas even south areas of Yellow River and north areas of Yangtze River can copy Beijing technical route”, Hengyi, Zhao said.

 1. Northern “Coal to electricity” policy is the most prospective

 

Which area is the most prospective for air source heat pump? In Southern heating, northern “coal to electricity”, industrial and agricultural drying and domestic hot water, over a half people vote northern “coal to electricity”.

Xuelin, Zhang believes that air source heat pump has enormous potential for it catering to “coal to electricity” market and policy. In fact, heating market size is bigger than water heater. Xuelin, Zhang give an example on spot. A hotel which owns 500 rooms, a guest room area is about 40 ㎡-50 ㎡, the amount of water heater VS heating equipment is about 1:10 to 1:8.

Guangwen, Yin said that heat pump develops well in water heater, heating and industrial application. But enterprises still need to boost application and promotion solidly.

3. Multifunction products are more popular

Which two kinds of product are more prospective in air source heat pump application?In water heater products, heating products, industrial and agricultural products, heating and water heater integration products and heating and cooling integration products, over 54% people vote combination of heating and water heater products and combination of heating and cooling products.

“Although heating and cooling integration technology is difficult carrying out at severe cold areas, its market is huge,” Hongqi, Li said. Xuchu, Tang mentioned that market capacity of water heater is smaller than heating; market size of industrial and agricultural applications is estimated to reach trillions. Heating and cooling integration will be a trend in future. Hengyi, Zhao believes that compressor technology is a difficulty for heating and cooling integration at present.  

4. Inverter powers heating and cooling integration technology

 

Which application inverter technology will become major force? In water heater products, heating products, industrial and agricultural products, heating and water heater integration products and heating and cooling integration products, 39.7% people vote heating and cooling integration products. 

Associate Li believes that inverter technology has significant at cooling and heating integration. “Inverter technology meets demand of electrical load and bring effect of energy conversation, Guangwen, Yin replenishes.

POLICY

1.       New energy subsidy policy will be implemented for a long time

How many years new energy subsidy policy will last? In two years, three years, four years and five years, 54% people vote three years.

Wenchao, Li holds a different opinion. Firstly, government always pays attention on green development. It has been a social issue. Thus, subsidy policy should be carried out for a long time. Secondly, from social benefits aspect, characteristics of air source heat pump, no pollution and energy conversation, bring positive influence to farmers. Government should give subsidy for a long time. Thirdly, coal as pillar energy in China, clean energy owns huge alternative space. The final subsidy policy still needs more efforts in the aspects of product optimization, quality, service life, operation cost, and humanization of staff operation and so on.

2. Market awareness influences promotion

Which factor influence promotion of air source heat pump subsidy policy? In local financial resources, policy guidance, climate and environment, market awareness, about 90% people vote local financial resources, policy guidance.  

But Li believes that financial resources and policy are just staged. Market awareness will profound lasting a long time. Taking Beijing as an example, technicians finally confirm air source heat pump as major product to generalize by analyzing technology, operation cost, and professional team etc. However, there is a lack of social publicity for air source heat pump products. Government promotion will play a decisive role in the development of heat pump products.

Guangwen, Yin points that value of air source heat pump should be pushed by insiders together.

FORECAST

1. Air source heat pump break out 3 million units in 2018

How many air source heat pumps (water heater/heating/drying) will break out in 2018? In twenty billion, thirty billion, forty billion and over forty billion, over a half people vote thirty billion.

According to 100% growth rate of heat pump product in recent two years, Yong, Huang conservatively estimate that air source heat product pump products will break out thirty billion units.

 

2. Heat pump drying products mainly focus on tobacco area

3. Heat pump drying products break out 200 million units in 2020

How many air source heat pump drying will break out in 2020? In 100 million, 200 million, 300 million and over 500 million, 33.3% people vote 100 million units.

However, masters hold different options. Yong, Huang thinks that market size can reach 200 million units if manufactures can control temperature and processes.

According to 50% growth rate in past years, Xuchu, Tang estimates 200 million units. He points out that EU Industrial Association had done a lot of preliminary work in drying products. Hengyi, Zhao believes that technical issue is major obstacle for drying market. The size difference between different products in the same field determines whether or not it can be replicated. Drying areas should focus on two aspects, firstly, improving product quality and economic value added; Secondly, finding out the drying process, and then promoting. 

All maters coming from government, university, association, manufactures offer proposals about how to develop air source heat pump industry. Heating manufactures still pay more effort on heating technology at severe cold regions. Heat pump drying manufactures need to improve drying process.

Run, Yang, chief of commercial department of ChinaIOL, believes that we should hold a cautious and optimistic attitude toward Chinese air source heat pump market. Environmental governance plays a strategy role in the long-term development of China's economy.Clean energy subsidy policy will be implemented in future. More important, manufactures need to optimize the product quality and actively promote clean energy products to enhance consumer awareness.